The Definitive Guide to Scalping, Part7: Scalping Breakouts

Everything You Always Wanted To Know About Swaps* (*But Were Afraid To Ask)

Hello, dummies
It's your old pal, Fuzzy.
As I'm sure you've all noticed, a lot of the stuff that gets posted here is - to put it delicately - fucking ridiculous. More backwards-ass shit gets posted to wallstreetbets than you'd see on a Westboro Baptist community message board. I mean, I had a look at the daily thread yesterday and..... yeesh. I know, I know. We all make like the divine Laura Dern circa 1992 on the daily and stick our hands deep into this steaming heap of shit to find the nuggets of valuable and/or hilarious information within (thanks for reading, BTW). I agree. I love it just the way it is too. That's what makes WSB great.
What I'm getting at is that a lot of the stuff that gets posted here - notwithstanding it being funny or interesting - is just... wrong. Like, fucking your cousin wrong. And to be clear, I mean the fucking your *first* cousin kinda wrong, before my Southerners in the back get all het up (simmer down, Billy Ray - I know Mabel's twice removed on your grand-sister's side). Truly, I try to let it slide. I do my bit to try and put you on the right path. Most of the time, I sleep easy no matter how badly I've seen someone explain what a bank liquidity crisis is. But out of all of those tens of thousands of misguided, autistic attempts at understanding the world of high finance, one thing gets so consistently - so *emphatically* - fucked up and misunderstood by you retards that last night I felt obligated at the end of a long work day to pull together this edition of Finance with Fuzzy just for you. It's so serious I'm not even going to make a u/pokimane gag. Have you guessed what it is yet? Here's a clue. It's in the title of the post.
That's right, friends. Today in the neighborhood we're going to talk all about hedging in financial markets - spots, swaps, collars, forwards, CDS, synthetic CDOs, all that fun shit. Don't worry; I'm going to explain what all the scary words mean and how they impact your OTM RH positions along the way.
We're going to break it down like this. (1) "What's a hedge, Fuzzy?" (2) Common Hedging Strategies and (3) All About ISDAs and Credit Default Swaps.
Before we begin. For the nerds and JV traders in the back (and anyone else who needs to hear this up front) - I am simplifying these descriptions for the purposes of this post. I am also obviously not going to try and cover every exotic form of hedge under the sun or give a detailed summation of what caused the financial crisis. If you are interested in something specific ask a question, but don't try and impress me with your Investopedia skills or technical points I didn't cover; I will just be forced to flex my years of IRL experience on you in the comments and you'll look like a big dummy.
TL;DR? Fuck you. There is no TL;DR. You've come this far already. What's a few more paragraphs? Put down the Cheetos and try to concentrate for the next 5-7 minutes. You'll learn something, and I promise I'll be gentle.
Ready? Let's get started.
1. The Tao of Risk: Hedging as a Way of Life
The simplest way to characterize what a hedge 'is' is to imagine every action having a binary outcome. One is bad, one is good. Red lines, green lines; uppie, downie. With me so far? Good. A 'hedge' is simply the employment of a strategy to mitigate the effect of your action having the wrong binary outcome. You wanted X, but you got Z! Frowny face. A hedge strategy introduces a third outcome. If you hedged against the possibility of Z happening, then you can wind up with Y instead. Not as good as X, but not as bad as Z. The technical definition I like to give my idiot juniors is as follows:
Utilization of a defensive strategy to mitigate risk, at a fraction of the cost to capital of the risk itself.
Congratulations. You just finished Hedging 101. "But Fuzzy, that's easy! I just sold a naked call against my 95% OTM put! I'm adequately hedged!". Spoiler alert: you're not (although good work on executing a collar, which I describe below). What I'm talking about here is what would be referred to as a 'perfect hedge'; a binary outcome where downside is totally mitigated by a risk management strategy. That's not how it works IRL. Pay attention; this is the tricky part.
You can't take a single position and conclude that you're adequately hedged because risks are fluid, not static. So you need to constantly adjust your position in order to maximize the value of the hedge and insure your position. You also need to consider exposure to more than one category of risk. There are micro (specific exposure) risks, and macro (trend exposure) risks, and both need to factor into the hedge calculus.
That's why, in the real world, the value of hedging depends entirely on the design of the hedging strategy itself. Here, when we say "value" of the hedge, we're not talking about cash money - we're talking about the intrinsic value of the hedge relative to the the risk profile of your underlying exposure. To achieve this, people hedge dynamically. In wallstreetbets terms, this means that as the value of your position changes, you need to change your hedges too. The idea is to efficiently and continuously distribute and rebalance risk across different states and periods, taking value from states in which the marginal cost of the hedge is low and putting it back into states where marginal cost of the hedge is high, until the shadow value of your underlying exposure is equalized across your positions. The punchline, I guess, is that one static position is a hedge in the same way that the finger paintings you make for your wife's boyfriend are art - it's technically correct, but you're only playing yourself by believing it.
Anyway. Obviously doing this as a small potatoes trader is hard but it's worth taking into account. Enough basic shit. So how does this work in markets?
2. A Hedging Taxonomy
The best place to start here is a practical question. What does a business need to hedge against? Think about the specific risk that an individual business faces. These are legion, so I'm just going to list a few of the key ones that apply to most corporates. (1) You have commodity risk for the shit you buy or the shit you use. (2) You have currency risk for the money you borrow. (3) You have rate risk on the debt you carry. (4) You have offtake risk for the shit you sell. Complicated, right? To help address the many and varied ways that shit can go wrong in a sophisticated market, smart operators like yours truly have devised a whole bundle of different instruments which can help you manage the risk. I might write about some of the more complicated ones in a later post if people are interested (CDO/CLOs, strip/stack hedges and bond swaps with option toggles come to mind) but let's stick to the basics for now.
(i) Swaps
A swap is one of the most common forms of hedge instrument, and they're used by pretty much everyone that can afford them. The language is complicated but the concept isn't, so pay attention and you'll be fine. This is the most important part of this section so it'll be the longest one.
Swaps are derivative contracts with two counterparties (before you ask, you can't trade 'em on an exchange - they're OTC instruments only). They're used to exchange one cash flow for another cash flow of equal expected value; doing this allows you to take speculative positions on certain financial prices or to alter the cash flows of existing assets or liabilities within a business. "Wait, Fuzz; slow down! What do you mean sets of cash flows?". Fear not, little autist. Ol' Fuzz has you covered.
The cash flows I'm talking about are referred to in swap-land as 'legs'. One leg is fixed - a set payment that's the same every time it gets paid - and the other is variable - it fluctuates (typically indexed off the price of the underlying risk that you are speculating on / protecting against). You set it up at the start so that they're notionally equal and the two legs net off; so at open, the swap is a zero NPV instrument. Here's where the fun starts. If the price that you based the variable leg of the swap on changes, the value of the swap will shift; the party on the wrong side of the move ponies up via the variable payment. It's a zero sum game.
I'll give you an example using the most vanilla swap around; an interest rate trade. Here's how it works. You borrow money from a bank, and they charge you a rate of interest. You lock the rate up front, because you're smart like that. But then - quelle surprise! - the rate gets better after you borrow. Now you're bagholding to the tune of, I don't know, 5 bps. Doesn't sound like much but on a billion dollar loan that's a lot of money (a classic example of the kind of 'small, deep hole' that's terrible for profits). Now, if you had a swap contract on the rate before you entered the trade, you're set; if the rate goes down, you get a payment under the swap. If it goes up, whatever payment you're making to the bank is netted off by the fact that you're borrowing at a sub-market rate. Win-win! Or, at least, Lose Less / Lose Less. That's the name of the game in hedging.
There are many different kinds of swaps, some of which are pretty exotic; but they're all different variations on the same theme. If your business has exposure to something which fluctuates in price, you trade swaps to hedge against the fluctuation. The valuation of swaps is also super interesting but I guarantee you that 99% of you won't understand it so I'm not going to try and explain it here although I encourage you to google it if you're interested.
Because they're OTC, none of them are filed publicly. Someeeeeetimes you see an ISDA (dsicussed below) but the confirms themselves (the individual swaps) are not filed. You can usually read about the hedging strategy in a 10-K, though. For what it's worth, most modern credit agreements ban speculative hedging. Top tip: This is occasionally something worth checking in credit agreements when you invest in businesses that are debt issuers - being able to do this increases the risk profile significantly and is particularly important in times of economic volatility (ctrl+f "non-speculative" in the credit agreement to be sure).
(ii) Forwards
A forward is a contract made today for the future delivery of an asset at a pre-agreed price. That's it. "But Fuzzy! That sounds just like a futures contract!". I know. Confusing, right? Just like a futures trade, forwards are generally used in commodity or forex land to protect against price fluctuations. The differences between forwards and futures are small but significant. I'm not going to go into super boring detail because I don't think many of you are commodities traders but it is still an important thing to understand even if you're just an RH jockey, so stick with me.
Just like swaps, forwards are OTC contracts - they're not publicly traded. This is distinct from futures, which are traded on exchanges (see The Ballad Of Big Dick Vick for some more color on this). In a forward, no money changes hands until the maturity date of the contract when delivery and receipt are carried out; price and quantity are locked in from day 1. As you now know having read about BDV, futures are marked to market daily, and normally people close them out with synthetic settlement using an inverse position. They're also liquid, and that makes them easier to unwind or close out in case shit goes sideways.
People use forwards when they absolutely have to get rid of the thing they made (or take delivery of the thing they need). If you're a miner, or a farmer, you use this shit to make sure that at the end of the production cycle, you can get rid of the shit you made (and you won't get fucked by someone taking cash settlement over delivery). If you're a buyer, you use them to guarantee that you'll get whatever the shit is that you'll need at a price agreed in advance. Because they're OTC, you can also exactly tailor them to the requirements of your particular circumstances.
These contracts are incredibly byzantine (and there are even crazier synthetic forwards you can see in money markets for the true degenerate fund managers). In my experience, only Texan oilfield magnates, commodities traders, and the weirdo forex crowd fuck with them. I (i) do not own a 10 gallon hat or a novelty size belt buckle (ii) do not wake up in the middle of the night freaking out about the price of pork fat and (iii) love greenbacks too much to care about other countries' monopoly money, so I don't fuck with them.
(iii) Collars
No, not the kind your wife is encouraging you to wear try out to 'spice things up' in the bedroom during quarantine. Collars are actually the hedging strategy most applicable to WSB. Collars deal with options! Hooray!
To execute a basic collar (also called a wrapper by tea-drinking Brits and people from the Antipodes), you buy an out of the money put while simultaneously writing a covered call on the same equity. The put protects your position against price drops and writing the call produces income that offsets the put premium. Doing this limits your tendies (you can only profit up to the strike price of the call) but also writes down your risk. If you screen large volume trades with a VOL/OI of more than 3 or 4x (and they're not bullshit biotech stocks), you can sometimes see these being constructed in real time as hedge funds protect themselves on their shorts.
(3) All About ISDAs, CDS and Synthetic CDOs
You may have heard about the mythical ISDA. Much like an indenture (discussed in my post on $F), it's a magic legal machine that lets you build swaps via trade confirms with a willing counterparty. They are very complicated legal documents and you need to be a true expert to fuck with them. Fortunately, I am, so I do. They're made of two parts; a Master (which is a form agreement that's always the same) and a Schedule (which amends the Master to include your specific terms). They are also the engine behind just about every major credit crunch of the last 10+ years.
First - a brief explainer. An ISDA is a not in and of itself a hedge - it's an umbrella contract that governs the terms of your swaps, which you use to construct your hedge position. You can trade commodities, forex, rates, whatever, all under the same ISDA.
Let me explain. Remember when we talked about swaps? Right. So. You can trade swaps on just about anything. In the late 90s and early 2000s, people had the smart idea of using other people's debt and or credit ratings as the variable leg of swap documentation. These are called credit default swaps. I was actually starting out at a bank during this time and, I gotta tell you, the only thing I can compare people's enthusiasm for this shit to was that moment in your early teens when you discover jerking off. Except, unlike your bathroom bound shame sessions to Mom's Sears catalogue, every single person you know felt that way too; and they're all doing it at once. It was a fiscal circlejerk of epic proportions, and the financial crisis was the inevitable bukkake finish. WSB autism is absolutely no comparison for the enthusiasm people had during this time for lighting each other's money on fire.
Here's how it works. You pick a company. Any company. Maybe even your own! And then you write a swap. In the swap, you define "Credit Event" with respect to that company's debt as the variable leg . And you write in... whatever you want. A ratings downgrade, default under the docs, failure to meet a leverage ratio or FCCR for a certain testing period... whatever. Now, this started out as a hedge position, just like we discussed above. The purest of intentions, of course. But then people realized - if bad shit happens, you make money. And banks... don't like calling in loans or forcing bankruptcies. Can you smell what the moral hazard is cooking?
Enter synthetic CDOs. CDOs are basically pools of asset backed securities that invest in debt (loans or bonds). They've been around for a minute but they got famous in the 2000s because a shitload of them containing subprime mortgage debt went belly up in 2008. This got a lot of publicity because a lot of sad looking rednecks got foreclosed on and were interviewed on CNBC. "OH!", the people cried. "Look at those big bad bankers buying up subprime loans! They caused this!". Wrong answer, America. The debt wasn't the problem. What a lot of people don't realize is that the real meat of the problem was not in regular way CDOs investing in bundles of shit mortgage debts in synthetic CDOs investing in CDS predicated on that debt. They're synthetic because they don't have a stake in the actual underlying debt; just the instruments riding on the coattails. The reason these are so popular (and remain so) is that smart structured attorneys and bankers like your faithful correspondent realized that an even more profitable and efficient way of building high yield products with limited downside was investing in instruments that profit from failure of debt and in instruments that rely on that debt and then hedging that exposure with other CDS instruments in paired trades, and on and on up the chain. The problem with doing this was that everyone wound up exposed to everybody else's books as a result, and when one went tits up, everybody did. Hence, recession, Basel III, etc. Thanks, Obama.
Heavy investment in CDS can also have a warping effect on the price of debt (something else that happened during the pre-financial crisis years and is starting to happen again now). This happens in three different ways. (1) Investors who previously were long on the debt hedge their position by selling CDS protection on the underlying, putting downward pressure on the debt price. (2) Investors who previously shorted the debt switch to buying CDS protection because the relatively illiquid debt (partic. when its a bond) trades at a discount below par compared to the CDS. The resulting reduction in short selling puts upward pressure on the bond price. (3) The delta in price and actual value of the debt tempts some investors to become NBTs (neg basis traders) who long the debt and purchase CDS protection. If traders can't take leverage, nothing happens to the price of the debt. If basis traders can take leverage (which is nearly always the case because they're holding a hedged position), they can push up or depress the debt price, goosing swap premiums etc. Anyway. Enough technical details.
I could keep going. This is a fascinating topic that is very poorly understood and explained, mainly because the people that caused it all still work on the street and use the same tactics today (it's also terribly taught at business schools because none of the teachers were actually around to see how this played out live). But it relates to the topic of today's lesson, so I thought I'd include it here.
Work depending, I'll be back next week with a covenant breakdown. Most upvoted ticker gets the post.
*EDIT 1\* In a total blowout, $PLAY won. So it's D&B time next week. Post will drop Monday at market open.
submitted by fuzzyblankeet to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Just 2 more Conspiracy Theories that turned out to be True

(i couldn't post in the previous one , word limit )

1.Big Brother or the Shadow Government

It is also called the “Deep State” by Peter Dale Scott, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley.
A shadow government is a "government-in-waiting" that remains in waiting with the intention of taking control of a government in response to some event. It turned out this was true on 9/11, when it was told to us by our mainstream media. For years, this was ridiculed as a silly, crazy conspiracy theory and, like the others listed here, turned out to be 100% true. It is also called the Continuity of Government.
The Continuity of Government (COG) is the principle of establishing defined procedures that allow a government to continue its essential operations in case of nuclear war or other catastrophic event. Since the end of the cold war, the policies and procedures for the COG have been altered according to realistic threats of that time.
These include but are not limited to a possible coup or overthrow by right wing terrorist groups, a terrorist attack in general, an assassination, and so on. Believe it or not the COG has been in effect since 2001.After 9/11, it went into action.
Now here is the kicker, many of the figures in Iran Contra, the Watergate Scandal, the alleged conspiracy to assassinate Kennedy, and many others listed here are indeed members of the COG. This is its own conspiracy as well.
The Secret Team:
The CIA and Its Allies in Control of the United States and the World is a book written by Air Force Col. L Fletcher Prouty, published in 1973.
From 1955 to 1963 Prouty was the "Focal Point Officer" for contacts between the CIA and the Pentagon on matters relating to military support for "black operations" but he was not assigned to the CIA and was not bound by any oath of secrecy. (From the first page of the 1974 Printing)
It was one of the first tell-all books about the inner workings of the CIA and was an important influence on the Oliver Stone movie JFK. But the main thrust of the book is how the CIA started as a think tank to analyze intelligence gathered from military sources but has grown to the monster it has become. The CIA had no authority to run their own agents or to carry out covert operations but they quickly did both and much more. This book tells about things they actually did and a lot about how the operate. In Prouty's own words, from the 1997 edition of The Secret Team: This is the fundamental game of the Secret Team. They have this power because they control secrecy and secret intelligence and because they have the ability to take advantage of the most modern communications system in the world, of global transportation systems, of quantities of weapons of all kinds, and when needed, the full support of a world-wide U.S. military supporting base structure.
They can use the finest intelligence system in the world, and most importantly, they have been able to operate under the canopy of an assumed, ever-present enemy called "Communism." It will be interesting to see what "enemy" develops in the years ahead. It appears that "UFO's and Aliens" are being primed to fulfill that role for the future.
To top all of this, there is the fact that the CIA, itself, has assumed the right to generate and direct secret operations. "He is not the first to allege that UFOs and Aliens are going to be used as a threat against the world to globalize the planet under One government."
The Report from Iron Mountain
The Report from Iron Mountain is a book, published in 1967 (during the Johnson Administration) by Dial Press, that states that it is the report of a government panel.
According to the report, a 15-member panel, called the Special Study Group, was set up in 1963 to examine what problems would occur if the U.S. entered a state of lasting peace.
They met at an underground nuclear bunker called Iron Mountain (as well as other, worldwide locations) and worked over the next two years. Iron Mountain is where the government has stored the flight 93 evidence from 9/11.A member of the panel, one "John Doe", a professor at a college in the Midwest, decided to release the report to the public. The heavily footnoted report concluded that peace was not in the interest of a stable society, that even if lasting peace, "could be achieved, it would almost certainly not be in the best interests of society to achieve it." War was a part of the economy.
Therefore, it was necessary to conceive a state of war for a stable economy. The government, the group theorized, would not exist without war, and nation states existed in order to wage war. War also served a vital function of diverting collective aggression. They recommended that bodies be created to emulate the economic functions of war.
They also recommended "blood games" and that the government create alternative foes that would scare the people with reports of alien life-forms and out of control pollution.
Another proposal was the reinstitution of slavery.
U.S. News and World Report claimed in its November 20, 1967 issue to have confirmation of the reality of the report from an unnamed government official, who added that when President Johnson read the report, he 'hit the roof' and ordered it to be suppressed for all time.
Additionally, sources were said to have revealed that orders were sent to U.S. embassies, instructing them to emphasize that the book had no relation to U.S. Government policy.
Project Blue Beam is also a common conspiracy theory that alleges that a faked alien landing would be used as a means of scaring the public into whatever global system is suggested. Some researchers suggest the Report from Iron Mountain might be fabricated, others swear it is real.
Bill Moyers, the American journalist and public commentator, has served as White House Press Secretary in the United States President Lyndon B. Johnson Administration from 1965 to 1967. He worked as a news commentator on television for ten years. Moyers has had an extensive involvement with public television, producing documentaries and news journal programs.
He has won numerous awards and honorary degrees. He has become well known as a trenchant critic of the U.S. media. Since 1990, Moyers has been President of the Schumann Center for Media and Democracy. He is considered by many to be a very credible outlet for the truth. He released a documentary titled, The Secret Government, which exposed the inner workings of a secret government much more vast that most people would ever imagine.
Though originally broadcast in 1987, it is even more relevant today. Interviews with respected top military, intelligence, and government insiders reveal both the history and secret objectives of powerful groups in the hidden shadows of our government.
Here is that documentary:
vid
For another powerful, highly revealing documentary on the manipulations of the secret government produced by BBC, click here.
The intrepid BBC team clearly shows how the War on Terror is largely a fabrication.
For those interested in very detailed information on the composition of the shadow or secret government from a less well-known source, take a look at the summary available here.

2. The Federal Reserve Bank

The fundamental promise of a central bank like the Federal Reserve is economic stability.
The theory is that manipulating the value of the currency allows financial booms to go higher, and crashes to be more mild. If growth becomes speculative and unsustainable, the central bank can make the price of money go up and force some deleveraging of risky investments - again, promising to make the crashes more mild.
The period leading up to the American revolution was characterized by increasingly authoritarian legislation from England. Acts passed in 1764 had a particularly harsh effect on the previously robust colonial economy.
The Sugar Act was in effect a tax cut on easily smuggled molasses, and a new tax on commodities that England more directly controlled trade over. The navy would be used in increased capacity to enforce trade laws and collect duties.
Perhaps even more significant than the militarization and expansion of taxes was the Currency Act passed later in the year 1764.
"The colonies suffered a constant shortage of currency with which to conduct trade. There were no gold or silver mines and currency could only be obtained through trade as regulated by Great Britain. Many of the colonies felt no alternative to printing their own paper money in the form of Bills of Credit."
The result was a true free market of currency - each bank competed, exchange rates fluctuated wildly, and merchants were hesitant to accept these notes as payment.
Of course, they didn't have 24-hour digital Forex markets, but I'll hold off opinions on the viability of unregulated currency for another time.
England's response was to seize control of the colonial money supply - forbidding banks, cities, and colony governments from printing their own. This law, passed so soon after the Sugar Act, started to really bring revolutionary tension inside the colonies to a higher level.
American bankers had learned early on that debasing a currency through inflation is a helpful way to pay off perpetual trade deficits - but Britain proved that the buyer of the currency would only take the deal for so long...
Following the (first) American Revolution, the "First Bank of the United States" was chartered to pay off collective war debts, and effectively distribute the cost of the revolution proportionately throughout all of the states. Although the bank had vocal and harsh skeptics, it only controlled about 20% of the nation's money supply.
Compared to today's central bank, it was nothing.
Thomas Jefferson argued vocally against the institution of the bank, mostly citing constitutional concerns and the limitations of government found in the 10th amendment.
There was one additional quote that hints at the deeper structural flaw of a central bank in a supposedly free capitalist economy.
"The existing banks will, without a doubt, enter into arrangements for lending their agency, and the more favorable, as there will be a competition among them for it; whereas the bill delivers us up bound to the national bank, who are free to refuse all arrangement, but on their own terms, and the public not free, on such refusal, to employ any other bank" –Thomas Jefferson.Basically, the existing banks will fight over gaining favor with the central bank - rather than improving their performance relative to a free market.
The profit margins associated with collusion would obviously outweigh the potential profits gained from legitimate business.
The Second Bank of the United States was passed five years after the first bank's charter expired. An early enemy of central banking, President James Madison, was looking for a way to stabilize the currency in 1816. This bank was also quite temporary - it would only stay in operation until 1833 when President Andrew Jackson would end federal deposits at the institution.
The charter expired in 1836 and the private corporation was bankrupt and liquidated by 1841.While the South had been the major opponent of central banking systems, the end of the Civil War allowed for (and also made necessary) the system of national banks that would dominate the next fifty years.
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) says that this post-war period of a unified national currency and system of national banks "worked well." [3] Taxes on state banks were imposed to encourage people to use the national banks - but liquidity problems persisted as the money supply did not match the economic cycles.
Overall, the American economy continued to grow faster than Europe, but the period did not bring economic stability by any stretch of the imagination. Several panics and runs on the bank - and it became a fact of life under this system of competing nationalized banks. In 1873, 1893, 1901, and 1907 significant panics caused a series of bank failures.
The new system wasn't stable at all, in fact, many suspected it was wrought with fraud and manipulation.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is not shy about attributing the causes of the Panic of 1907 to financial manipulation from the existing banking establishment.
"If Knickerbocker Trust would falter, then Congress and the public would lose faith in all trust companies and banks would stand to gain, the bankers reasoned."
In timing with natural economic cycles, major banks including J.P. Morgan and Chase launched an all-out assault on Heinze's Knickerbocker Trust.
Financial institutions on the inside started silently selling off assets in the competitor, and headlines about a few bad loans started making top spots in the newspapers.
The run on Knickerbocker turned into a general panic - and the Federal Government would come to the rescue of its privately owned "National Banks.
"During the Panic of 1907, "Depositors 'run' on the Knickerbocker Bank. J.P. Morgan and James Stillman of First National City Bank (Citibank) act as a "central bank," providing liquidity ... [to stop the bank run] President Theodore Roosevelt provides Morgan with $25 million in government funds ... to control the panic. Morgan, acting as a one-man central bank, decides which firms will fail and which firms will survive."
How did JP Morgan get so powerful that the government would provide them with funding to increase their power? They had key influence with positions inside the Administrations.
They had senators, congressmen, lobbyists, media moguls all working for them.
In 1886, a group of millionaires purchased Jekyll Island and converted it into a winter retreat and hunting ground, the USA's most exclusive club. By 1900, the club's roster represented 1/6th of the world's wealth. Names like Astor, Vanderbilt, Morgan, Pulitzer and Gould filled the club's register. Non- members, regardless of stature, were not allowed. Dignitaries like Winston Churchill and President McKinley were refused admission.
In 1908, the year after a national money panic purportedly created by J. P. Morgan, Congress established, in 1908, a National Monetary Authority. In 1910 another, more secretive, group was formed consisting of the chiefs of major corporations and banks in this country. The group left secretly by rail from Hoboken, New Jersey, and traveled anonymously to the hunting lodge on Jekyll Island.
In fact, the Clubhouse/hotel on the island has two conference rooms named for the "Federal Reserve." The meeting was so secret that none referred to the other by his last name. Why the need for secrecy?
Frank Vanderlip wrote later in the Saturday Evening Post,
"...it would have been fatal to Senator Aldrich's plan to have it known that he was calling on anybody from Wall Street to help him in preparing his bill...I do not feel it is any exaggeration to speak of our secret expedition to Jekyll Island as the occasion of the actual conception of what eventually became the Federal Reserve System."
At Jekyll Island, the true draftsman for the Federal Reserve was Paul Warburg. The plan was simple.
The new central bank could not be called a central bank because America did not want one, so it had to be given a deceptive name. Ostensibly, the bank was to be controlled by Congress, but a majority of its members were to be selected by the private banks that would own its stock.
To keep the public from thinking that the Federal Reserve would be controlled from New York, a system of twelve regional banks was designed. Given the concentration of money and credit in New York, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York controlled the system, making the regional concept initially nothing but a ruse.
The board and chairman were to be selected by the President, but in the words of Colonel Edward House, the board would serve such a term as to "put them out of the power of the President."
The power over the creation of money was to be taken from the people and placed in the hands of private bankers who could expand or contract credit as they felt best suited their needs. Why the opposition to a central bank? Americans at the time knew of the destruction to the economy the European central banks had caused to their respective countries and to countries who became their debtors.
They saw the large- scale government deficit spending and debt creation that occurred in Europe. But European financial moguls didn't rest until the New World was within their orbit. In 1902, Paul Warburg, a friend and associate of the Rothschilds and an expert on European central banking, came to this country as a partner in Kuhn, Loeb and Company.
He married the daughter of Solomon Loeb, one of the founders of the firm. The head of Kuhn, Loeb was Jacob Schiff, whose gift of $20 million in gold to the struggling Russian communists in 1917 no doubt saved their revolution. The Fed controls the banking system in the USA, not the Congress nor the people indirectly (as the Constitution dictates). The U.S. central bank strategy is a product of European banking interests.
Government interventionists got their wish in 1913 with the Federal Reserve (and income tax amendment). Just in time, too, because the nation needed a new source of unlimited cash to finance both sides of WW1 and eventually our own entry to the war.
After the war, with both sides owing us debt through the federal reserve backed banks, the center of finance moved from London to New York. But did the Federal Reserve reign in the money trusts and interlocking directorates? Not by a long shot. If anything, the Federal Reserve granted new powers to the National Banks by permitting overseas branches and new types of banking services.
The greatest gift to the bankers, was a virtually unlimited supply of loans when they experience liquidity problems.
From the early 1920s to 1929, the monetary supply expanded at a rapid pace and the nation experienced wild economic growth. Curiously, however, the number of banks started to decline for the first time in American history. Toward the end of the period, speculation and loose money had propelled asset and equity prices to unreal levels.
The stock market crashed, and as the banks struggled with liquidity problems, the Federal Reserve actually cut the money supply. Without a doubt, this is the greatest financial panic and economic collapse in American history - and it never could have happened on this scale without the Fed's intervention.
The number of banks crashed and a few of the old robber barons' banks managed to swoop in and grab up thousands of competitors for pennies on the dollar.
See:
America - From Freedom to Fascism The Money Masters Monopoly Men (below video):
VID
submitted by CuteBananaMuffin to conspiracy [link] [comments]

Non Farm Payrolls tomorrow

Folks that enjoyed my post on trading economic news may be thinking about trying their hands at trading tomorrow morning’s Non Farm Payroll (NFP) Employment.
The previous month’s value was 273k and the consensus for this release is -100k. The figure will be released at exactly 8:30 AM ET tomorrow and you can listen to a free live squawk (starting at 8:00 ET) at FinancialJuice.com.
Edit: I guess some folks saw me link to this site a few times and were concerned I’m shilling for them. I’m not affiliated with the site, I just use it because it’s free and I’m cheap. There may be other free squawk services out there (and I’d like to know if there are). The pros use paid services like RanSquawk and TradeTheNews and I think they offer free trials, so that’s an option too. Really anywhere you can get the NFP figure within 1-2 seconds after release will work.
Remember, a beat on the NFP forecast (higher number) is usually good for the dollar and a miss on the forecast (lower number) is usually bad for the dollar. The effect is most pronounced between USD and very stable currencies, for example USD/JPY.
However! This is the first negative NFP consensus in god knows how long. There will be a lot more eyes on the news than usual so you’ll have to be even faster on the trigger than usual.
Additionally, coronavirus is causing havoc in the markets and “infinite QE” is causing all sorts of non-reactions to things that would ordinarily be market movers. So it’s possible that the correlation I showed in my previous post will be muted tomorrow. Or it could be strengthened. Who knows, these are crazy and unprecedented times!
Finally, remember that the historical pricing, spreads, and correlation data I posted was based on OANDA, and since forex is OTC your mileage with your broker may vary, especially when it comes to the first few seconds after a news release.
Welp that’s me covering my ass in case things go sideways tomorrow :)
submitted by thicc_dads_club to Forex [link] [comments]

2020 Foresight: What to do to Protect and Profit in Bear Market.

Not many people like to talk about bear markets, especially not when the more emotive terms such as "Stock market crash" are used. It's often looked upon as fear mongering, and sensationalism. Preparation is practical, though.

This post is not intended to be fear mongering. In fact I want to discuss ways we can look at the market and plan for different scenarios that can mean we have no reason to be afraid.
Even if the S&P500 was to trade at 1,000 (big drop from current price (Today is the 31st August 2019, price is 2,946), we can plan and act in such ways this is a non harmful event for us. Particularly those who have net worth's to protect that has heavy stocks exposure.
This is not going to be one of these, "It's the top RIGHT NOW ... everyone panic!" sort of posts. Regardless of my views on this, I know this is a message that would not be well received. You do not know me, and too often people have cried wolf on this and been laughably incorrect. Instead what I will do is describe price moves in the indices that most people will have every reason to believe at this point can't happen.
Hopefully, they do not happen. I am not gleefully fangirling for a market crash. I just think there is prudence in preparation. These events will not happen in the hours after I post this, so I'd ask you kindly suspend prejudices. There is nothing to be gained by bickering over opinions of whether this will happen or not. I just want to give my perspective on how a person should protect themselves after it happens, if it does.
I'll cover some of the things I'd forecast will be points people will want to raise or questions likely to be asked. If you'd like to skip to the forecast and subsequent trade plan you can scroll down to the line break (unless you're going to make a common comment, then please read the following section first).

Why Do I think My Opinion Matters?

Many of you may be smarter than I in many ways, but few of you will have spent as much time assessing charting patterns as I have. Indeed, many people will scoff at the very idea of "lines on a chart" being worth anything. I'm not here to have this debate, I fully agree your view point is rational and logical. If I'd not spent years watching price charts every day, I'd think the same.
I focus mostly on Forex markets. I know these well. There are many ways currencies look like they may move that are ways they should not move unless there is big problems in stocks. These are nagging warnings. The attitude to risk in the Forex markets is negative, and stock markets show dangerous patterns. I watch these topping sorts of patterns every day. I see them in intra-day crashes, intra-week crashes and intra-month crashes.
Most major moves fit into these patterns, and when the same patterns are applied to previous stock markets in the months before they crashed, the way the patterns form and then complete (in a crash) is the same. From my perspective, these are just intra-decade crashes. There is little technical difference on the charts - although it's very different in the real world it affects.
This is why I am doing this in a "IF we see this ... then this is likely". I know at this point in the pattern, my methods predict something that will be highly unusual. If that thing happens, if we do not crash after that, we'd be breaking the trend of all market crashes in history (this is not likely, it does not seem the smart way to bet your net worth).

Technical Analysis is Tea Leaves!


You're welcome to your opinion on this, and I do understand your point of view. I will not post examples to try and prove my perspective on it, since it will always be called "curve-fitting". All I will say is nothing I have done in my years of trading has involved me persuading others what I do works. I do not sell training or anything of the like. I've spent many years using the things I've learned to bet my own money, and I've done well.
I will not debate on this subject, because it's always a deadlock. You can not convince me I've not seen what I've seen, and I can not show you what I've seen, and do not expect you to believe it without proof.

Stop Fear Mongering!


I really would like to re-iterate, I do not want you to be afraid. I am going to describe something that might happen that will be scary if it does happen. If it does not, there is no problem. I do not wish you to be fearful before, during or after.

This is like "Stop, Drop and Roll". None of us ever expect to be ablaze. If we are, this is good information. It will be better than running about waving arms and feeding the flames to engulf us. All I want to do here is to give you the "stop, drop and roll" of a market crash. To prevent you panicking and making bad decisions at bad areas. To allow you instead to go, "Fuck! Okay ... well that's not good. Now I have to ..." if scary things do happen.

No One Can Time the Market!

People have predicted and traded every stock market crash in history. The fact that many people try this and get it wrong does not take away from the fact people get this right, then place the right trades and make millions. Not many people make understanding the ways a market moves their life's work. If you do, you get a good feel for it's mood at any given time.

[Fundamental Analysis ] Says That Won't Happen!

I am not here to debate analysis viewpoints. Doing so has little use, it's better to forecast, assess and then take the best actions. I'll confess I am too ignorant on many of these topic to engage in debate. I wake up every day 5 days a week and decide where to bet my money. In doing this, I've found charts forecast and news reports. I can find no way of making money by being told what happened already, so I use the charts.
What I will say is for the warning move I will discuss to happen, something news related will have to change. Some catalyst event will have to happen. In 2008, it was Lehman. Make no mistake, the warnings were on the chart long before the bankruptcy was in the news.

Time in the Markets is Better than Timing the Markets


I am perfectly fine with this perspective, and not here to argue against it. If the market could drop 50% or more and you'd not be concerned because you think it will be back up in 10 years, this is none of my business.
I'm a day trader, so for me personally timing the markets is everything. Spending a lot of time in the market day trading often means you've made a mistake. I'm looking for ways to get foresight into what market moves may develop and understanding of what times and conditions I can enter into these moves to profit from the.
I want to stress I am not necessarily advocating the average person tries to time the markets. In the same way an electrician would not suggest you re-wire your own home. You also could not say to the electrician it's better to leave the lights off than risk getting a shock. Different preparations and skills sets give different possibilities. I spent a lot of years and lost money through a lot of them starting out learning how to do this.
The things I will explain here will not allow a person to consistently time the market. If I may be excused a cheesy pun, this "crash course" will be dealing with only single event, and one single set of scenarios. What I want to put forward for you in this is price moves to watch for and then (really quite specific) levels of price that are likely to offer us the best prices to protect long stock portfolios, or take speculative short trades. Very thin area of assessment.


Forecast and Plan.

What if the S&P500 Went to 2,200 ... Quickly?


It's the weekend, and the last day of August in 2019. The S&P500 has closed 2922 after rallying through the week after some sharp drops from all time highs. We may see record highs again if this keeps up ... but what if next week it opens and starts to fall? Or maybe rallies higher but can not make a new high and starts to fall.
What if it falls faster than it did in the last drop, and what if this time it does not stop? What if it gets to the lows of 2790, and goes from there quickly to 2700. These big levels act as resistance and the market can not trade higher than them. Instead it hits them, reverses and goes down more.

I think people would be nervous, but there'd be still the feeling of this being a normal, albeit tough, corrective move. There's weekly lows of 2,333. Above here the market is still technically up-trending. What if we got there, and the market went through it like it was nothing? What if the coming weeks or months we seen candles bigger than any we've seen recently? What if we were hearing news reports of record falls, rather than record highs?
What if over the development of only weeks and some horrific trading days we went from today's 2922 to break under the 2015 lows of 1,886?
I think people would be afraid!
Nothing I am saying is for the purposes of fear mongering, but I think this is possible. I'd like to say I think it's "highly unlikely", but I am thinking a lot about how to structure real bets on it and I like my odds. If this happens, it's likely the market will go lower still. What you do during the following weeks and months may have a huge affect on your financial health by the start of 2021.

How Does This Scenario Look on a S&P500 Chart?





That looks like it's not going to happen, right? I think that this looks like it's not going to happen. We learn through our life experience, and my life experience has taught me when I ignore what I think about things like this and build well structured trade plans that would assume it will happen, money comes. For me, this makes sense to bet on at the moment, as unlikely as it looks. That's getting a bit into "Calling the high", though. \Which this is not about.
Edit: Hmm, it sounds like it's not going to happen. I can not post pictures here apparently.

This is about what do you do if this happens? What if there is a day when they say on the news that the market just made it's lowest point in the last five years ... and economists and experts say it can go down more!

1 - Filter and assess your sources.
Before you act or even think about the information these sources have (pertaining to what trades to make or expect), check what they were saying now. If they're not saying this could happen - don't worry too much about what they say happens next. They have as much chance of being wrong.

2 - Do not panic.
This is a time to remain calm. Bad things have happened, and there will have been multiple days the market has dropped precipitously. Different economic factors explaining these moves may be threatening to get worse and the market may take more dangerous swings spiking under recent lows. This is the point at which most people will panic and make bad choices with their portfolio.

3 - Buy Around 1,800
This obviously sounds like something anyone would do right now, with price at 2,922; but with the conditions that'd have to be occurring for this of move to happen will make this highly counter intuitive at the time.

4 - Understand Something Changed, New Highs are Not Coming
From peak pessimism around 1,800 I expect the market to start to rally. Rallying strong. Making markets great again.
At this point, you should understand something has changed. The market is not meant to trade at that level in an up-trend. Frequently when these levels 'break', there is a strong counter move that is fierce. It's also brief. We can buy here and offset some of the losses in the mini bounce (but be very cautious).
2,129 area is where the danger of a bear move comes back in. It might rally a bit above here into 2,333.

This is where the second mistake many people will make will be. Not buying the lows, but then starting to buy into this rally thinking it's going to new highs.

Very Important: If price makes moves consistent with what I've described 2,220 - 2,300 are hedge areas.
If you take appropriate actions in these areas you can protect yourself from the chance of excessive loss if the market is to crash in 2020. You can also do this without taking on much risk. Granted if you hedge long portfolios there is some risk of losing a little, but your area of risk on these hedges is less than the area of risk on a long portfolio after this has happened.
When this has happened, historically it's always led to a crash in the coming months/year. We'll have done something the markets do not usually do. Big corrections may look similar, but when you deal with this all the time, you come to know there are specifics that should be noted. If the levels I've mentioned for a buy fill, the market is crashing. It's no longer a question of if.

5 - Hold Hedges Until 1,100

If we crash, the low will probably be only a bit below this level. Anything more than this in a fall would be truly horrific (I know many people think this is horrific, but from a technical point of view this is really to be expected, and not unusual. It only happens after long periods of time, so it's unexpected and uncommon. It not unusual in trend formation).
I am not a financial adviser, and can not tell you any trades you should be making to hedge portfolios or to take speculative positions. I've given these levels on the S&P500, and there are many things correlated to this you could use to protect portfolios. If this happens, I will be very much 'In the trenches'. I'll be trading in various markets every day and sharing some of my insights and trade plans, but I can't tell you specifically what to do.

I am only sharing this with you to let you know there are strategies people have used in the past to predict crashes, and I've used these strategies a lot and become good with them. They now predict a market crash starting in 2019, developing through 2020, and the things I've explained in this post would be the next steps if the prediction is accurate.
If the next steps happen, the strategy would then forecast the S&P500 to go from 2,200 - 2,400 sort of range to 1,000.
I am asking no one to take this seriously at the moment, but I would suggest if the market makes moves similar to what I've described - you then consider there may be a lot of merit to what it further forecasts.
submitted by whatthefx to investing [link] [comments]

CLSA: Greed & Fear : Modi and Banking Amendments [NP]

Chris Wood of CLSA is one of the most revered Equity Strategist. He periodically writes 'GREED & FEAR' series explaining his views and strategies. He usually meets the policymakers, CEOs and sector experts before forming his opinions on each country and the market.
This is a txt copy of the latest edition.
CLSA: GREED & FEAR : MODI AND BANKING AMENDMENTS - 11th May 2017
GREED & fear’s base case for 2017, namely for global equity investors to be overweight global emerging markets and the Eurozone, has been strengthened by Emmanuel Macron’s victory. Macron’s victory will have further encouraged hopes of a re-energised Franco-German alliance at the heart of the Eurozone and related hopes of a renewed drive towards integration. Whether such hopes prove to be a reality is quite another matter. But for the moment they can propel European equities higher in the run up to the German election where GREED & fear’s base case remains a Merkel victory.
GREED & fear also remains constructive on the euro since the base case must be that Derivative Draghi will signal some increase in token tapering at the next ECB monetary policy meeting on 8 June.
As for the US, renewed hopes that the Trump administration will be able to pass reform of Obamacare are again encouraging expectations that tax reform can be passed more quickly than previously anticipated. This remains extremely optimistic from GREED & fear’s standpoint, with the major uncertainty whether Republicans in Congress will insist on the package being revenue neutral. But for now such hopes may keep the 10-year Treasury bond yield above 2.3% and therefore equities reasonably constructive. Yet if such hopes of near-term tax cuts are dashed, GREED & fear’s view remains that the yield curve is vulnerable to renewed flattening given that the evidence remains that the downside risk to economic growth in America are rising not falling. More tightening by the Fed, let alone the commencement of balance sheet contraction, increases the risk for US equities and strengthens the case to be long Treasury bonds absent aggressive tax cuts. It also increases the argument to be underweight American equities in a global portfolio.
It is a reality of market sentiment that the China reflation trade is currently being questioned. GREED & fear’s base case is that the bulk of the correction in commodities is over, be it in copper, iron ore and other China reflation trade proxies.
Still GREED & fear is much less sanguine on oil where hopes of keeping oil above US$50 rest on OPEC being able to agree on an extension of the current production agreement at its forthcoming meeting scheduled for 25 May. In the absence of such a deal, oil looks vulnerable.There is now a following wind in Europe until the German federal election in September where investors currently anticipate a positive result. The issue will then become whether a Eurozone with a Merkel-Macron leadership or, less likely, a Macron-Schulz leadership, will really push for renewed integration on a presumed path to fiscal union. For that is what will be required in GREED & fear’s view to keep Italy in the Eurozone.
If Asia and emerging markets remain an overweight forGREED & fear, India also remains the most preferred equity story in the emerging market universe on a ten-year view. This long-term constructive view has been strengthened by evidence that the Modi government is showing a renewed focus to address the asset quality problem in the banking sector.
The key development on the bad loan problem was the publication late last week of an ordinance amending the Banking Regulation Act. The key purpose of this amendment is to empower the Reserve Bank of India to intervene in specific cases of default as well as to give the central bank the authority to require specific defaults to be sent to the insolvency court if lenders and borrowers cannot reach resolution.The other aim of this amendment is to remove a concern shared by all bankers that, if they agree to a haircut on a specific loan, they will be at risk of future investigation by the judiciary or an investigative agency. It is the reluctance of the banks to take haircuts which has been the key cause of India’s long festering banking problem.The lack of progress addressing this legacy problem in the banking sector is the main reason why India is still seeing no evidence of a renewed private sector-driven investment cycle. While there have, in GREED & fear’s view, been enormous achievements in other areas of policy, the missing link is the banking sector with the bulk of the problem lying in the state-owned banks.The new approach requires the RBI to execute proactively on its new powers. The good news is that the RBI’s technocratic approach means that its management of the NPA problem will be less politicised than if handled by other government agencies. The word in Delhi is that the RBI will come out with clear guidelines in the near future on how this process will work.There is naturally much scepticism as to whether resolutions of bad debt cases will happen given the previous failure to address the NPA problem. Still, in GREED & fear’s view it is wrong to be too sceptical since, if the RBI is prepared to be tough, it has the leverage to apply, since it now has the power to invoke the insolvency code against defaulters. Once the NPA issue is resolved, the way will be clear for the public sector banks to raise capital, a process which should also lead, with the encouragement of both the RBI and the government, to the consolidation of the public sector banks.
The rest of the Indian story under the extraordinary Modi remains as vibrant as ever. While it is true that the Aadhaar programme was launched under the previous government, the real roll out and practical application of the programme has been massively leveraged since Modi assumed power. The benefits of direct electronic payments are hard to exaggerate in terms of reduced leakages and the like.
There is also the approaching launch of the Goods and Services Tax (GST). While this will not be as clean as originally hoped, the arrival of GST is a big deal. The fundamental point to focus on is that GST will end inter-state barriers to trade. The result should be increased tax revenues.GREED & fear remains constructive even if the Indian stock market is certainly expensive on a forward earnings basis. The continuing rise in the stock market year to date, and the resulting re-rating, has been triggered primarily by ongoing strong inflows into domestic equity mutual funds.These inflows into the mutual funds have been a feature ever since Modi was elected and reflect a growing preference for financial assets over traditional assets not traditionally visible to the taxman in India, namely property and gold.
The investment in Naver in the Asia ex-Japan long-only portfolio will be removed. An investment in Indian state-owned bank State Bank of India will be initiated with a 3% weighting, while a further 1ppt will be added to the existing investment in HDFC.China’s foreign exchange reserves increased by US$20.4bn in April. This marks the first time China’s forex reserves have increased for three consecutive months since June 2014. CLSA’s economics team estimates a mark-to-market gain of US$25bn in April, which implies a balance of payments deficit of only US$5bn in April. This further reinforces the view here that capital flight in China is not out of control.The latest Chinese inflation data provides further evidence that China PPI inflation has already peaked. PPI inflation slowed for the second consecutive month, down from 7.6% YoY in March to 6.4% YoY in April. The slowdown can be partly explained by the base effect. But China PPI also declined on a month on month basis for the first time since June 2016.
submitted by ribiy to india [link] [comments]

1broker copy guide - avoiding extreme losses

First off, let me state that I am not even close to a professional when it comes to trading. I got in a few months ago for passive income from copying 3.14fx and have come a long way since then, quadrupling my initial investment and losing half of it. I've watched traders such as cfdtrader, Lumyo, Robot, and crypto_chris lose several hundred percent after a fail from opening multiple positions. I got into 1broker to make money without monitoring it, but instead I learned a lot about trading and risk management, even profiting off several of my own trades. It's a valuable experience in itself even if you're not profiting and I wouldn't give it up for anything. If these losses are enough to make you quit, so be it. Investing comes with risks that some people can't handle. It's not free money.
https://www.dailyfx.com/calendar is the economic calendar that I use while trading. High importance events can easily trigger a 80% loss or gain depending on the direction you choose. It's highly risky to trade when someone of great importance such as Draghi or Yellen are speaking.
Even if you follow a general MAX 5% rule, you will still lose up to 16% of your account if somebody opens 4 of the same positions and they stop at 80%. Making back money is also tougher than losing it, as once you lose 16% of your account, 5% of your account is a lot less than before. Therefore, you have less capital per trade.
Also, be careful when changing your copy amount. I often see copiers saying things like "Great work, I'm upping my copy amount" and "Increased copy amount from x to x". In my opinion, increasing a copy amount should only be done when your initial amount is already low. Losses on a higher copy amount may wipe out the gains on a smaller copy amount. (-50% loss with 0.1 btc = +100% gains with 0.05 btc) Always stick to a 5% max rule unless you're feeling risky.
Then, there comes the gambling/greed phase that many new copiers often do. (Guilty of this myself). After extreme success, a copier may feel the need to upgrade their copy reward to maximize profit. Or after extreme failure, a copier may feel they need to upgrade their copy reward to make up for losses. All of these are mistakes.
1broker is not filled with market professionals. Most of us here are either self taught or complete novices. Professionals would not be sharing their trades for about $70-80 for each trade (at best). They won't be asking for copiers on other traders' profiles. They won't be using a Pikachu as their profile picture. They won't be using a broker that isn't heavily regulated and insured. They would be using their own capital to make millions off of trades.
Remember, any newbie can easily accumulate winning trades by gambling with high leverage. As long as they have around $1300 as of now, they can easily create a profile that suggests that they are a professional, when in reality they are entering at random points and exiting when a position turns into profit, rather than using technical analysis and watching economic calendars.
And even the best of traders will have their ups and downs. I've stuck with 3.14FX even when he reached -100% this month because he's had a great history on this site. I feel that he can make the money that he loses back. And even though he has doubled up on a position yesterday (not sure why, probably was extremely confident), it was a success.
Can you really trust anyone? No way! Unlike regular trading, 1broker is more unregulated. Signing up requires no personal information so any user with malicious intent can build up a steady reputation and perform an exit scam (or have a massive failure) without any reparations. Robot has no link to any social media or anything in his profile. For all we know, he could own another account that has -100%, and he is depending on luck while opening multiple positions to accumulate followers. (I just used Robot as an example, my intent is not to accuse him of multiple accounts)
Then there are potential exit scams (from a trader, not 1broker itself) that will drain a decent portion of your account. There's a reason why you have a choice to choose how many trades maximum you can copy per day. This hasn't happened yet, but it will definitely happen in the foreseeable future. Somebody will set up an order for 50 shorts and 50 longs and set the take profit and stop loss the opposite of each other. Then after closing, they'll withdraw their bitcoin never to be heard of again.
When you put your trust in a trader, you should trust them to carefully monitor a trade. Unfortunately, there's currently no way to tell if your copied trader is online or not, so you'll never know if they're in a coma and won't be back for another 6 months. My suggestion is to either take profit when you think that the conditions are correct or just trust the trader. Nobody can see the future. If you think that you'll rather close the trade before the weekend, it's your choice. If you think upcoming news will destroy the trade, feel free to close early. However, be prepared for regret if it goes up, or a great feeling that you dodged a bullet if it goes down. It's all a part of trading.
1broker's copy system is seriously flawed at the moment. Of course, there's no easy way to fix it. Why would a great trader want to share one of their trades if they're not getting much out of it? This encourages opening multiple positions to maximize copy rewards, which can result in massive losses. Robot is one of the traders exploiting this.
So how can you prevent massive losses? There's really no way. You're putting your trust in random people without an identity, who can easily be a scammer. When it comes to people like Robot, I put 1-2% of my funds because I know that he opens multiple positions. This is why I'm always sticking with 3.14FX, he established himself a long time ago and he knows what he is doing. Somebody who has been on the platform for over 3 years with several losses is preferable to an anonymous newcomer who just registered but appears to be good at trading.
Also, the percentage on 1broker is misleading. You may think "Wow, I'm going to get an 500% of my initial investment if I copy Lumyo!" In reality, you should only be using 5% max of your capital per trade. If you copied him from the beginning (I started copying at around 90%), you should have only gained 25% rather than 500%. But still, 25% of your initial investment is huge.

My opinion on several traders

vits2015: If you watched vits2015 from the beginning, you would know that their style of trading is... off. 15 positions on UK100, all short, some of them at -30% when I first saw him as a successful trader. What does that tell me about him? He can open up to 6 positions on the same trade at once, and is willing to hold them as long as possible to get a profit. (Average holding time 8 days)
gtfann: Even with recent losses, he still appears to be a decent trader. It seems that he upped his usual leverage due to the crowds of traders flocking to copy him though. Multiple positions with a lower leverage isn't really something that I like either, but I'm sticking with him for now until there's a drastic change.
vaiono: He lets his losses play out and even though he has a decent track record,it's still risky to play with. Silver is extremely volatile and due to leverage, a small move in any direction can either be a huge loss or huge gain.
Snortex: Pretty much a meme on 1broker. He acknowledges his trading style and warns his copiers. I like him as a person due to his warnings, but still wouldn't recommend copying him unless you can afford to lose a lot. Edit: After examination of his trades, I feel like he's not only gambling like his description suggests. His entries are planned out carefully (Although that has hurt him when there was a flash crash). You'll take several 80% losses but you may take several 400% gains. He seems to have a habit of chasing a trade, which can lead to multiple 80% losses. However, once the trend reverses, his profits go through the roof. When you're copying, copy for the long term! Of course, feel free to uncopy if you feel that the bottom is still far away.
noIDea: He has had bad stretches in the past, but still makes his way back. I think he's a good trader and even though he opens multiple positions, he's one of the best at setting stop losses so the risk is not as high as others who open multiple trades.
Gold_Gangsta: Name change from Crypto Chris for some reason? Be wary of multiple positions as the USDJPY fiasco shows. Seems to be doing fairly well with gold as of now.
1monk2: Multiple positions fairly often, even says that he's drunk in the description. This is gambling.
knightlife999: The description definitely shows promise. There is no proof to those claims on the site, but I feel it's safe to allocate some of your funds toward copying him with his track record.
HedgeCryFx Risk 5: Decent trader, pays attention to economic calendar as well. The only problem is that he lets losses play out to 80%
boogi: I would be wary about the higher losses, but then again, there's a good track record.
sergiomc: Seems to be decent at trading stocks. With an average holding time of 14 days and leverage of 10, you should be expecting to lose about ~3.92% of your gains to financing, which is not actually that much.
Cool Hand Luke: Low leverage trading. If you were to copy him, I would recommend only using 1% or 2% of your account max per trade if you plan on copying others as well. He's a great trader for slow steady gains, but if you're looking to get rich fast or go broke trying, this is not the guy for you.
eylemc: Quick trades with minimal profit and no losses so far. As of now, it may be too early to judge, but I think that he's somebody that might be worth copying. Edit: Seems to let losses play out to 80%. Be wary.
3.14fx: Back in the game, doing well with stocks and USDJPY recently. High leverage, but usually stops losses within a reasonable range.
SunnyNet: Small gains, huge losses. Be wary as your first copied trade could easily be a -80%.
SatoshiReport: Trading using a neural network, after looking deep into the trade history, I'm not so sure about it. Correct me if I am wrong, but the bot doesn't take into account important news and events. Edit: This bot has too many flaws to continue copying in my opinion. Even with the previous gains, it opens the same position as soon as one closes, negating the 33% stop loss AND forcing a loss due to the spread. The only thing that keeps it out of the negative is the rare 80% gains that you might find once in a while.
CryptoMessiah: The image being shown on his twitter has weird numbers on it (USDJPY at 100-103 in the matter of minutes), I think it's a simulator so it isn't actually "proved". Also, asking people to copy for "free money" is misleading as anything can go wrong in the forex market, there is no guaranteed money. I copied with a minimum 0.001 btc and will update this post if the bot proves to be successful. Edit: Tons of losses trying to get the right direction and then huge wins. I would say it's ok, but you're better off with a human capitalizing on gains. The only advantage to this bot is 24/7 hour trading.
kosanet: His description says it all. Be careful while copying, but don't be discouraged to place an amount you can afford to lose. He seems to have a great history of monitoring losses (positions never get below 20%) but it's still a new profile who clearly states that he's not a pro. May open multiple trades and trading with USDJPY a lot. His scalping strategy means that overnight fees won't be an issue. Edit: Now he's starting to be a little more risky with his trades as more copiers arrive. Be careful, he never reached liquidation at 80% yet but he could at any moment.
google: A bit late to the party, but what can I say? I honestly can't believe he accumulated 190 copiers but he seems to have faded out quickly. Golgo13 is having a fun time on all of his trades
KillerWhale: Extremely high risk with all of those multiple positions. Like google and robot, don't be fooled by performance recently and look through their whole account. People who saw the 220% recently may have missed when he was in -475% a few days ago.
SoontobeWW3: Great trader in my opinion. However, I think emotion plays a role in his trading as every huge loss is often followed by more.
APPoh: Seems to know what he's doing. However, there is a very short trading history and we're never sure. Positions can reach 50% without closing, so it's very possible that he might let losses play out to 80%.
dingo: Not much to say. Good with 1 position at a time, and even with the 80% loss last month, still ended in profit. Be careful as he might sometimes not stop a position and instead wait for it to recover and a 80% loss is huge compared to his gains.
Edit August 12: Will stop adding new traders now. Before copying someone, remember:
  1. Check their trading history, ALL OF IT. You're entrusting them with your money, you should be 100% sure.
  2. Wait until they've established themselves. Sure, you can be frustrated about potentially losing 200% profit, but it sure beats 700% losses.
I already expressed my views on Robot and 3.14FX above. Lumyo is currently inactive.
Last tip: Don't uncopy people if you feel like they can make it back. If you choose to copy someone, you're in it for the long run. Now this may contradict some of my earlier statements, but if you have somebody that you believe in, don't uncopy them after a loss. Eventually, they will make their way back up and after you see their success again, you'll be tempted to copy again. Of course, if you are copying somebody who you have no faith in, feel free to drop them. Cutting your losses short is important to learn in trading.
submitted by FCatarina to 1Broker [link] [comments]

A Forensic Approach to Trading: Examining the FOMC release.

It's a truism in trading that your strategies are worthless unless they pass the test of the market. They either make money in the long run, or they don't. We have a hard, factual standard we can hold matters to.
When it comes to theories about what is happening in the market, it's much harder to apply similar standards because many things don't appear on the charts. However, this often means we fail to even try.
This is bad practice. We should be willing to challenge our own, and other's theories about the market, as well as investigate out-of-the-box theories, by comparing them to available chart evidence.
Edit: squitstoomuch has drawn my attention to the fact that my analysis and understanding of the situation has some serious, if not fatal flaws. Rather than delete the post, I'll leave it up because looking at other people's mistakes is often useful, and it's still a good idea to compare your ideas to the charts and see if the market validates them. Grossly incorrect stuff has strike throughs, the rest still stands.
For example, a very common analysis you will hear after the combination of rate decision and Governor press conference is that the overall direction of movement can be accounted for by what was said in the conference.
This is something you can assess by looking at the charts.
Proposition 1: The USD fell largely due to Yellen's comments implying future rate trajectories
Consider:
M1 EURUSD http://i.imgur.com/MS7ceQf.png
M1 USDJPY http://i.imgur.com/JeHI8qw.png
You can see that the majority of the price movement against the USD happens within the first ten minutes after the rate release, and within that, the majority of the move happened within the first minute.
Logic dictates that NONE of this movement was related to the content of the speech, simply because the speech had not been given yet.
You can also see that although there was movement throughout the speech, it managed to only depress the USD an additional third compared to the rate release.
How you choose to interpret this is up to you, but at least you can now frame the 'it was Yellen's speech that did it' theories in the context of some irrefutable evidence.
My personal interpretation is that whilst the speech content strongly influences price, and did further depress the USD, it was not the original motivator for the drop. Nor was it the main determinant of the magnitude of the drop in the value of the USD, because both of those happened before she ever opened her mouth. ~~
Let's look at some more propositions.
Proposition 2: You should trade what happened last time
USDJPY H1 chart from 14th December 2016, the previous time rates were raised. FOMC raises Fed Fund Rate, USD goes:
http://i.imgur.com/qL7upT7.png
... up. So if you had simply looked at what happened last time, and then bought this time, you would have lost money. I'm going to strongly recommend that nobody short the USD for the next rate hike just because it went down this time!
Proposition 3: You could have just predicted the movement on technicals.
Well...
http://i.imgur.com/zYOlVmw.png
... as it turns out, one of the most basic, elementary technical strategies (trendline + horizontal resistance) would have gotten you in nicely this time, at least on USDJPY. The EURUSD set-up was a bit more advanced, but still straightforward in the context of the essentially guaranteed rate decision.
http://i.imgur.com/L8B7s1K.png
Interestingly, pivot points perfectly predicted the extent of the day's price movement this time round.
USDJPY (D)
http://i.imgur.com/emY42Nn.png
EURUSD (H1)
http://i.imgur.com/fD8UDss.png
(Note the different timeframes. This may just be a case of coincidence, but I will say that ever since I put them on my charts, they've been very useful for exactly this sort of thing: how far the market will go before a pause or a retrace).
Proposition 4: the market is irrational and unpredictable
I don't have any strong evidence to disprove this, but I will say that the NFP price action was a big red flag that something like this was going to happen on FOMC day, and that there are clear, strongly repeatable analytical approaches that predicted an outcome like this. Many people were not the least bit surprised.
.
Finally, I'd like to suggest that this is much more than just "pricing in". I don't have the time nor patience to go through my archives and dig out every "priced in" economic release that I've ever tried to trade, so I'll leave the evidence hunt for those more curious.
But in my experience, when the market has priced an event in, and that event happens, the usual result is ... nothing. This is what 'pricing in' means, that price is already correct in regards to that information.
If anything actually happens, it's usually counter-intuitive, and that means that the big banks are using the event to hustle price about.
As a footnote, that's not the only way they hustle price. One thing they also like to use talking heads to influence market sentiment: http://news.forexlive.com/!/goldman-sachs-see-a-second-fed-hike-in-june-20170310 (This bulletin is saying there will be faster rate hikes, ie investors should buy USD. You might wonder why Goldman would risk their reputation by putting their name behind directions they're not trading, and the easy answer is that nobody remembers these bulletins, but everyone remembers the end of year profits of the bank. Bank mouthpieces aren't there to help the clients, they're there to help the bank)
submitted by alotmorealots to Forex [link] [comments]

ITT: I teach you how simple it is to trade Fundemental Analysis

I did one for technical analysis, so here's one for fundemental analysis (here is the previous thread: http://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/2nc2dt/itt_i_teach_you_how_simple_it_is_to_make_money_in/ )
Steps:
  1. Realize that Fundemental Analysis is extremely important to the success of a trader who trades the Daily and above timeframes. The goal is to make sure that the trend from TA lines up with the view from FA. (ie. Bullish FA + Bullish TA= success).
  2. Go to http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php to view all news events. Change the settings to show only [RED] expected impact. We mainly care about Inflation, Central Banks, and Speeches. Red just means high volatility upon release.
  3. The BIGGEST problem most people have with trading FA is that they think EVERY red news is important. That is FALSE. We mainly care about the Central Banks and what they do with any Stimulus, Interest Rates, and Inflation. These are the 3 holy grails for trading FA. The Central Bank are the ones who calls the shots.
  4. Go to www.investopedia.com and learn what Central banks montary statements, Quantiative Easing, Interest Rates, and Inflation really is. You want to know how the market reacts to a Quantiative easing, highelower intrest rates or inflation, ect ect ect.
  5. Every month or so, a country will release a statement that's given by the central bank. You will need to read these statements, and trust me it's not hard. It's only once a month for each currency for gods sakes.

    Currency|BankName

    EUR: ECB

    USD: FOMC

    AUD: RBA

    NZD: RBNZ

    CAD: BOC

    JPY: BOJ

    GBP: BOE

  6. Click on this image: http://prntscr.com/5vixoy .

    The Red box is what you click on to bring down more information.

    The Pink box is a basic outline of what that news event is.

    The blue box is the important one. This is where 3rd party news articles about that news event is posted. (i prefer bloomberg and reuters).

    Click on any of them to read it. Notice that they fill up with 3rd party articles AFTER the news release (duh).
  7. The point isn't to trade before the central bank news release, but AFTERWARDS. You want to know what the central bank is thinking. An example: Doing a Quantitative easing will cause the value of a currency to fall, since USD did 3 quantitative easing in the past, this happened: http://prntscr.com/5tuebl . Notice how when the bank said they WILL do it soon, it caused a rally. We love these rallys. We make $$$ off this shit.
  8. So you basically want to read what they are saying and figure out which direction they are looking towards. Not every country is WANTING to increase the value of their currency. Some care more about inflation, interest rates, unemployment, ect. Reading the central bank statements will TELL YOU. Remember to always keep in mind that market sentiment WILL change based on economic data releases. Meaning if we know USD will be bullish, it's only once certainly bullish IF criteria is met. That criteria may be any of the economic indicators, and if they're NOT met, expect pullbacks. You can either trade these pullbacks (bit risky) or you can use them as opportunities to make trades toward the overall goal of the central bank (Buy USD in this case). Also, don't think that when a central bank says 'we want to increase interest rates in February.' means that they WILL do it in February. If the indicators aren't good, they won't increase it.
  9. Example: BOJ wants to issue a quantitative easing stimulus on 10-31-2014. So, Trebel decides to not use his indicators and decides to short JPY because he learned that doing a Quantiative easing stimulus causes the value of that currency to fall dramatically (not to mention Tecnical analysis says that the trend for JPY is bearish)! Trebel is now happy and can go chase some big booties with his money.
  10. Example 2: SilkyBrah decides to buy JPY because they had good unemployment numbers , but later he finds out he got margin called. WHY?! Because JPY doesn't care about their unemployment numbers like USA does, they care about something else. SilkyBrah will next time read the central bank statement to know what event is important for that country.
Some of you probably don't understand WHICH news event is from the central bank, so here's a picture: http://prntscr.com/5vj12g
EDIT: I tried to dumb this down as much as possible.
Thanks for the Reddit gild/gold whoever it was. No idea what I do with them though lol
EDIT2: Okay. Bloomberg's new website layout is beyond horrible. I now will use Reuters and other competitors instead.
submitted by masudhossain to Forex [link] [comments]

Suggestions for a healthy longlived server

I'm coming at this with years of RO experience, and the advice of friends who play at the top of WoE, PvM, and PvP. I have also been a GM on 3 servers and an admin on one, and asked for advice from two friends who have been admins on their own successful low rate servers. Additionally, I have some experience with editing the source files and redesigning the game a bit, not that I will get much into that, but I do know what is and isn't possible. I also have experience from other games such as WoW (as a world and arena PvPer at the highest levels), and from political and economic games such as EVE and bloc. Finally, I have some real life knowledge of economics (though I wouldn't call myself an economist) due to being a FOREX trader.
All of that and more has lead to my understanding of game design, some of which I can apply here.
I realize that this is a long post, but that's because I got the input from several people and put (a little bit of) effort into explaining the reasoning. If any of these things are being discussed in other threads, pardon me and just let me dump all of my opinions into one place, as they are largely interconnected.
Most of my suggestions are based on sustainable gameplay, sustainable economy, rewarding players for their decisions, and giving players more freedom. I tried to keep the changes, for the most part, quite vanilla. I have some much better ideas that require customization, but most players recoil at the thought of customization in RO.
I'll start with the unquestionable and move to the debatable.

No donor or normally unavailable items with unique stats.

This means there should be no items with dex on mid or lower. No upper headgears with more than 3 dex, etc. Basically, no overpowered donor items or ones that disrupt normal player balance. Adding a single dex to a build can be incredibly imbalanced, which is why I used dex as an example, but this applies to lots of stats.
Not only can it be imbalanced, but it causes item inflation as well. When players no longer need to hunt for gear (because they replace it with donor or custom quest items), lots of gear becomes either worthless and thus overupgraded to abnormal degrees or obsoleted.
On the same token, this means not allowing BG items to be used outside of BGs, including in WoE or anywhere else. It's devastating to the economy. WoE is a competition between guilds, not just to conquer castles, but to acquire enough resources to do it.
IMO the only items players should be able to donate for are cosmetic, and perhaps things like battle manuals and maybe bubble gum, which have no direct impact on gameplay other than to reduce the grind. But really, cosmetic items should be enough if you're clever. There's one suggestion on this down in the zeny sink section.

Set strict rules for GMs to follow, and don't give them more power than they need.

If all of that sounds paranoid to you, then you're going to end up with GM problems. Even if you trust your GMs with your life, you need to set guidelines. You can't read their minds, even if they are your best friends. They are going to use their own discretion, and that might vary widely from your own decisions, unless you give them strict guidelines.
Not only will this make the GMs better, but it'll give you more confidence in their decisions when players complain, and allow you to handle the inevitable drama better, thus preserving the playerbase.
I have seen a GM go on /vg/ and talk shit to the players there, unbeknownst to the admin.

A PvP room where consumables (with the possible exception of conc/awakening/berserk pots) are disabled, and where all buffs are removed upon entering.

The main interest of many other players, is PvP (not GvG/WoE). Unfortunately, PvP is often woefully underrepresented in server design decisions. PvP is incredibly disinteresting when using dex food and potion spamming, and when getting SL/Assump/etc from outside. Leave the consumable spam and buff stacks to WoE and PvM. Also, please don't use a shitty map for the PvP room.
You can, of course, have two PvP rooms, so this shouldn't be a controversy.
On RaptureRO, there was also a 3v3 PvP arena tournament, which was incredibly fun. Takes some scripting though and isn't top priority.

A draw range of 18+, preferably around 20 to 24.

I'm referring to /conf/battle/client.conf area_size. The default is 14, which is an antiquated value meant to reduce stress on PCs made back in 2000. There are actually mobs that can aggro from outside of your view range, which is quite dumb. There is no reason to use a lower draw range, except for artificial difficulty.
Successful servers like Rapture, ProjectRage, Destina, etc, had an increased the draw range without issue. Newer players won't even notice a difference.
If you are afraid of client lag in WoE (there shouldn't be any, but just in case) you can simply script an NPC to automatically change the area_size value before and after WoE. It doesn't require a reset of anything, not even an @reloadscript.

Turn up the party exp bonus.

Simple enough, makes it worth leveling as a party instead of leeching yourself with a hunter (the normal method for leveling most things as fast as possible).

Take proactive steps to limit zeny inflation and promote a player-driven economy.

Zeny inflation is one of the biggest problems for the longevity of any RO server. The game was not designed in a way to have a stable economy. You must tweak a few things to get something workable. I'll talk about item inflation a bit later:

Roll out content in waves

It's a suggestion I heard elsewhere and it's a good one. Start with trans disabled and less dungeons available. Gradually release more as the server grows and people hit higher levels. This is a good idea for a few reasons:

Consider splitting the server into a pure-WoE server and a non-WoE server

This might at first sound unappealing by splitting up the playerbase, but it allows you to more easily design both servers to fit their respective playerbases. Also keep in mind that many of the players from each server will play on both servers. Only a minority will be exclusive to one.
Potion spamming completely trivializes a large portion of the game's content and reduces the skill ceiling dramatically. It reduces the importance of healing abilities, eliminates the need for mana efficiency, imbalances PvP (asura spam is a lot harder when you can't just mash blue pots, for example. The same goes for SinXs and White Smiths with white pots, and so on). In PvP, abilities that are not 1HKOs become nearly worthless, due to white pot spam. This reduces ordinarily incredibly complex jobs like champ, to nothing more than asura-machines. Additionally, no pot spam means that if a champ wants to spam asura in PvM, he needs a Professor. This concept applies to other classes as well.
In WoE, potion spamming is necessary to survive. In the rest of the game, though, potion spam ruins much. No WoE means no need for pot spamming.
The rest of my suggestions assume that you aren't going with this suggestion, so bear that in mind.

Misc

PS: Yeah you can't upgrade Orlean's gloves, but it could at least become a decision between +1 dex vs. +2 dex and -1 vit or -1 def, or something, instead of just "yeah these are better than or equal to regular gloves in every way". There's literally no reason to farm gloves because you don't need gloves to farm Orlean's gloves. That's how it works for a lot of older gear, and it's not a good thing.
Ideally, newer gear should scale better than older gear, but not be better inherently. You won't be able to do it with everything, but every bit helps to stave off inflation and inevitable server death.

PvP enabled on MVP maps.

This is controversial, but hear me out. I think this can, by itself, increase the longevity of a server dramatically, while solving a plethora of problems as well.
MVPs are a scarce resource, and players often compete for them. Normally this leads to a meta of trying to out-grief other players. Instead, with PvP enabled, you could fight for the MVP. It changes the competition into a meaningful part of the game, rather than a rat race. This will be especially important on a high population server.
And remember the costume hat idea? Now people can fight for the boxes that low level MVPs drop, creating competition over the usually worthless MVPs, and reason to go out and play the game.
Particularly challenging content, like bio3, will be extremely difficult to clear if players are trying to kill you. This will encourage diplomacy and cooperation between players (as seen in sandbox games like EVE, DayZ, etc). Either you work with the other group, or you become rivals. This is good for the health of a server. The increased difficulty will also increase the longevity of the server by reducing the rate at which players clear the content and collect the gear.
There's the other added benefit of making it more of a challenge to reach max level in places like Abbey3. You might want to turn on PvP in Thor1 for the same reason. Again, players can choose to work together or make enemies while leveling in these high level zones. And, again, the increased difficulty increases server longevity by reducing the average rate at which players progress.
Finally, you can have mobs on PvP maps drop white and blue herb boxes, and spawn on timers. This way, players can compete for the resources they need in WoE, rather than grind for days. You can use regular white/blue herb boxes, or use WoE-only potion drops and have them drop in somewhat higher quantities. The more generalized the drop is, the fewer should drop, to have a smaller impact on the overall economy. Players who don't WoE can simply sell the WoE pots to WoE players, so they have just as much reason to compete for the mobs.
Since the WoE players need these resources to win WoE, they'll fight each other for the resources between WoEs, reducing the boredom. It also gives every high level player a thing to look forward to doing: world PvP. Something that pretty much never gets old. Just make sure that the mobs are scarce enough that you don't make it too easy to collect herbs/pots. It's supposed to be a supplementation to normal farming, to make it easier in a fun/competitive way.
This change will have no impact on low level players. I have seen this done and it works beautifully. If you're imagining constant fighting between players on every MVP map, you're forgetting that there are dozens of MVP maps. Most maps are usually empty, especially at certain times of day.
You will probably need to turn off teleporting and memo on non-dungeon maps to prevent things like champs from running in with asura in relative impunity.
As far as players who are disinterested in PvP go, remember that there are instanced dungeons now. There are also dungeons in which it's highly unlikely that you'll run into other players due to quest requirements: Thanatos, Vesper, Ktullanux, probably a few others I'm forgetting. You could just turn PvP off on those maps for that matter.
You also have the option of disabling PvP on some other MVP maps if you feel that's necessary.

BGs

If you go with my last suggestion, I'd LOVE it if you simply don't include BGs on the server. In my opinion, BGs are a terrible and trivialized bastardization of RO PvP. They're tedious and unfun, and unnecessary when you have world PvP, a PvP room, and WoE.
However, if you're going to include BGs, then:
submitted by BuddhistSC to ggRO [link] [comments]

Some potential market movers coming up tomorrow

Time Event Forecast Last
0830 Non-Farm Employment Change 227K 126K
0830 Unemployment Rate 5.4% 5.5%
0945 FOMC Member Dudley Speaks . .
When looking ahead, I like to pay attention to the forex markets and events that drive the USD (more so than the stock market).
NFP represents jobs created in the previous month excluding farm related jobs as they are seasonally driven. A miss on the forecast of 227K will likely negatively impact the market and could suggest that interest rates will need to remain lower for a longer period of time which in turn may negatively affect the USD (stock market down, USD down, Silver up). EDIT: To elaborate on my potentially confusing comments in regards to the stock market in this case. The driver will be the NFP irrespective of interest rates. If rates continue to remain low and the realization exists that low rates are not spurring a maintainable economy then the stock market will not care about low interest rates
Unemployment rate, well, not a very accurate representation of reality but the market still listens. It is forecast to go down improve by .1%. Probably won't be a big market mover unless it comes in under the forecast in which it will significantly affect the market (stock market down, USD down, Silver up). Under the forecast obviously means a higher percentage.
FOMC Member Dudley's comments could affect the market either way depending on what stance he has in regards to the fed funds rate and general market comments.
Market movements during such events are often heavily driven by "safehaven" flows which are quite unpredictable. Will negative news result in safehaven in the USD? It happens! Or will it be in metals? It has been quite some time since there were heavy safehaven flows into metals but if news is significantly pointing to an economic downturn you'll see those flows restored.
Just my .02c. I'm no economist but do like to pay attention to fundamental events and try to gain an understanding into what moves markets and how...
EDIT: I chose to write this because I often see "Why did silver go up(or down) .50c today?", etc...there is always a reason and it can usually be found in the forex market. Another driver is natural disasters, foreign policy, etc.
EDIT2: I should add that if the forex market consensus results in a miss being "baked" into the market ahead of the event. Then the USD will be all out of wack and move opposite to what "should" happen. This is known as "buy the rumor, sell the news"...just something to be aware of.
submitted by shinybars to Silverbugs [link] [comments]

AUDUSD ready to break out?! WHO THE HELL KNOWS! (pictures)

Masud says yes. It's been a while since i posted an actual trade on Reddit, so here you go. Not the best or ideal trade for me though. Sort of the reason why i'm posting it.
D1 chart: http://prntscr.com/3y8hhi
H4 chart: http://prntscr.com/3y8h8s

Reasons:

1)SUPDEM zones being tested for second time with only a MINOR retrace bouncing off another Supdem zone.
2) Fundamental Analysis points toward a bullish trend for AUDUSD. (See forex factory calendar and bloomberg).
3) Trading a break out...not my favorite. It's hard to get an Engulfing candlestick in this shit volatility.
4) Flipped my trusty coin and it said bullish.
5) H4 chart shows Lower time frame supdem zones. Notice that i put my SL below the previous supdem zone WITH breathing room. Remember to move SL up at 50% or 75% to TP. (I normally move SL to breakeven at 75%).
6) Expected time to finish? Seeing how great this volatility is? Probably when we have flying cars.
7) Questions? Ask. High chance of troll reply.

EDIT:

TP hit. It's retracing as expected back to the supdem zone it broke. I will reenter long in that zone if it forms an engulfing candlestick on the H1 or H4 timeframe. Note that there was a catalyst that made AUD drop right from the .9500 zone. One being a psychological level, and another being an economic release (which isn't that big of a deal).
submitted by masudhossain to Forex [link] [comments]

Asian shares bounce after losses, dollar sags on weak U.S. CPI

Asian shares bounce after losses, dollar sags on weak U.S. CPI
Shinichi Saoshiro
5 Min Read
Men walk past an electronic board showing market indices outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan, March 2, 2016.Thomas Peter
TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian stocks bounced on Monday after three losing sessions, tracking a firmer Wall Street, while the dollar was weighed down by tensions on the Korean peninsula and weak U.S. inflation data which dampened prospects of another Federal Reserve interest rate hike later this year.
Overall reaction was subdued to Monday's Chinese data which were generally weaker than forecast, and reinforced views that the world's second-largest economy is starting to lose a bit of steam as lending costs rise and the property market cools.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS was up 0.7 percent. The index had fallen for three straight days previously, losing a combined 3 percent, on escalating tensions between the United States and North Korea.
Australian stocks rose 0.5 percent and South Korea's KOSPI .KS11 climbed 0.4 percent.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng .HSI was up 0.8 percent and Shanghai .SSEC added 0.2 percent.
China's factory output in July grew 6.4 percent from a year earlier, short of the 7.2 percent forecast, while fixed-asset investment expanded 8.3 percent in the first seven months against expectations for growth of 8.6 percent.
Geopolitical risks were expected to remain a key theme for the global markets in the near term, as North Korea celebrates Liberation Day on Tuesday to mark the end of Japanese rule.
Investors also braced for tensions ahead of Aug. 21, when an annual joint U.S.-South Korean military exercise is due to begin.
"Due to caution towards a further escalation in tensions over North Korea, U.S. yields and equities are expected to decline and the yen is likely keep appreciating this week," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief forex strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo.
Japan's Nikkei .N225 bucked the trend and fell 1 percent as a stronger yen overshadowed much better-than-expected second quarter economic growth.
The three major U.S. stocks indexes snapped three days of losses and ended higher on Friday, as investors bet on slower U.S. rate hikes following weaker-than-expected consumer price data. But gains were muted by increasingly aggressive exchanges between Washington and Pyongyang. [.N]
U.S. Treasury yields, which already declined on the North Korean concerns, fell further on Friday on the soft U.S. consumer prices data. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield US10YT=RR touched 2.182 percent on Friday, its lowest since late June, before pulling back a little to 2.204 percent on Monday.
Friday's data showed the U.S. consumer price index edged up just 0.1 percent last month after it was unchanged in June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI rising 0.2 percent in July.
The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies was flat at 93.076 .DXY after it slipped about 0.4 percent on Friday.
The greenback traded slightly higher at 109.370 yen JPY= after slipping to 108.720 on Friday, its weakest since April 20.
The yen tends to gain in times of geopolitical tension on expectations that Japanese investors will repatriate assets.
It also showed little reaction to second-quarter gross domestic product data which revealed that the economy expanded for a sixth straight quarter led by private consumption and capital expenditure.
While growth was faster than expected, it is not expected to nudge the Bank of Japan into dismantling its massive stimulus program any time soon, as inflation remains stubbornly weak.
The euro was 0.1 percent higher at $1.1824 EUR=.
Crude oil prices edged down after rising slightly on Friday on lower U.S. crude stocks, instability in major producer Nigeria and strong global demand growth. [O/R]
U.S. crude CLc1 was down 2 cents at $48.80 a barrel and Brent LCOc1 was 7 cents lower at $52.03 a barrel.
Gold hovered near a two-month high, benefiting from the U.S.-North Korean tensions and Friday's weak U.S. inflation data. The dollar's recent weakness was also seen to be helping gold.
Spot gold XAU= was a shade lower at $1,287.51 an ounce after reaching $1,291.86 on Friday, its highest level since June 7.
Other precious metals such as silver XAG= and platinum XPT= were also buoyant.
Reporting by Shinichi Saoshiro; Editing by Lisa Twaronite and Kim Coghill
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Weekly Roundup | Random Chat | Notifications

News roundup for the previous week.
In International news
  1. Feature: U.S. dignitaries say U.S., China must keep good relations to benefit world
  2. 'Serious' hack attacks from China targeting UK firms: The gang behind the attacks has compromised technology service firms and plans to use them as a proxy for attacks, security firms have said
  3. Americans' concerns about China: ranked
  4. China donated 12,173 tonnes of rice to Zimbabwe to assist vulnerable people that were affected by drought which wreaked havoc last year. In 2016, China already donated 19,000 tonnes of rice which had been distributed to the needy throughout the country
  5. China, South Korea discuss more sanctions on North Korea amid talk of Trump action
  6. Freight train to leave Britain on long haul for China
  7. Blackwater founder Erik Prince eyes opportunities with China
  8. China’s National Space Administration Secretary-General Yulong Tian says that China is contemplating developing cooperation with Russia with respect to space debris
  9. American-Chinese Lady's Dream of Attending Tsinghua: Those who were born in America should know their roots and identify themselves as Chinese because they will not get lost, feel ashamed or reject their motherland's culture in the crisis of identity of American society, Tan concluded
  10. Racist United Airline Overbooked Flight, Forcibly Removes Asian Doctor and His Wife For No Reason Other Than to Free up Seats (United - has acknowledged that the man's only apparent crime was that the flight was overbooked and he refused to leave voluntarily)
  11. Boy, two, and parents suffer burns after acid attack in north London
  12. Russia may abandon International Space Station to join forces with China
  13. A consortium of Chinese and Indonesian firms on Tuesday signed a contract with KCIC, a firm tasked with monitoring the high-speed train project linking Jakarta to Bandung, unveiling the construction phase of the project
  14. China warns against using military force in Syria
  15. United Passenger's Violent Removal Sparks Outrage In China: Images of a bloodied passenger being forcibly removed from a United Airlines flight in Chicago drew widespread condemnation in China following a witnesses' report that the man said he was targeted because he was Chinese
  16. Chinese Lives Matter Petition Becoming Viral in the Overseas Chinese Community
  17. China and Norway resume free trade negotiations after diplomatic freeze: The memorandum of understanding was one of six pacts covering cooperation on economic development, technology, health, science and sport
  18. Russia and China Finding Ways to Avoid the U.S. Dollar: The Central Bank of Russia opened its first overseas office in Beijing. ICBC established a clearing bank in Moscow to handle transactions in Chinese currency. Russia is preparing to issue its first federal loan bonds in Chinese currency
  19. Many in China think doctor was dragged off because he was Asian. 'United Airlines just randomly chose an Asian? It’s blatant racial discrimination' 'a perfect illustration' of human rights in the US. 'I am going to tell you a joke: America is the country with the best human rights'
  20. Chinese social media continues to rage at United, and the airline may face real fallout
  21. China tells US to resolve Korea tensions peacefully
  22. China commits US$60bn to Africa
  23. China warns India over Dalai's visit to disputed area
  24. China Might Bomb North Korea If It Crosses Beijing’s ‘Bottom Line’
  25. Trump, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday, appeared to acknowledge that China hasn’t been intervening to weaken its currency recently. “They’re not currency manipulators," he said. (finally we can move on from this made up/outdated fight)
  26. Trump says he told Xi how he bombed Syria over ‘most beautiful piece of cake’: says that he was faced with a dilemma – whether to inform Xi. “What does he do, finish his dessert and go home and then they say, you know, the guy you just had dinner with just attacked a country?” Trump mused
  27. Trump claims China has turned back N. Korean coal ships, lauds it as 'big step': "The vast amount of coal that comes out of North Korea going to China, they've turned back the boats. That's a big step, and they have many other steps that I know about."
  28. Chinese premier holds talks with Sao Tome and Principe counterpart on cooperation
  29. Lukashenko: Belarus is ready to increase food supplies to China's Hunan Province
  30. China publicly criticises US missile strike on Syria
  31. China, Sri Lanka vow to deepen cooperation to further develop strategic cooperative partnership
  32. Russian-Chinese Joint Ventures in Russia’s Far East, Arctic: An integral element in increasing bilateral trade will be the increased maritime transit of goods and hydrocarbon resources by developing Russia’s merchant marine infrastructure
  33. Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed his plans to visit China in May to take part in the "One Belt, One Road" forum in Beijing
  34. White House: China Abstained From UN Vote on Syria Thanks to Trump-Xi
  35. The 10 minutes with Xi Jinping that changed Donald Trump’s mind on North Korea
  36. First rail freight service to China departs UK: British goods including soft drinks, vitamins and baby products are in the 30 containers carried by the train, which will be a regular service. The train will pass through 7 other countries before arriving on 27 April
  37. Chinese FM: Political settlement is only reliable and right way to solve crisis in Syria
  38. Belarus' cooperation with Hunan Province hailed as example to follow
  39. "There can be no winners in an armed conflict between the U.S. and North Korea over Pyongyang's nuclear weapons and missile programs, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Friday [14 April 2017], while pledging China's support for any attempts at dialogue between the sides."
  40. In the Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Report 2017, China ranked 15 among 136 countries in 14 dimensions, up two spots
  41. China seeks Russia's help to 'cool' N. Korea situation
  42. China says deal reached at last with Myanmar on oil pipeline
  43. Foreign Minister statement on Korea situation. Check out the comments.
In Domestic news
  1. China anti-graft body investigating chief insurance regulator
  2. Beijing to reward informants on spying
  3. Luxembourg Consulate Staff tries to physically assault old Chinese man in Shanghai
  4. China emerges as digital rights champion with new info privacy law
  5. President Xi meets incoming HKSAR chief executive
  6. JD.com to build 150 airports in China for drone delivery: Drone delivery would help reduce the freight costs by 70 percent. It said its drones, which can carry 50 kilograms of parcels, have been put into use and drones that can carry 500 kilograms are in the pipeline
  7. Graph: Finding China's missing girls who show up in the census years -- sometimes decades -- after birth
  8. China raises pensions amid pressure from slowing economy, aging population
  9. China Focus: Xiongan's key role is to receive Beijing's non-capital functions: vice premier
In SciTech news
  1. The Top 10 Artificial Intelligence Startups in China
  2. Self-charging robots sorting system helps Chinese delivery firm finish at least 200k packages a day in the warehouse
  3. Seaweed: From superfood to superconductor. Yang, currently at Qingdao University, worked with colleagues at Qingdao University and at Los Alamos National Laboratory in the U.S. to make porous carbon nanofibers from seaweed extract
  4. Squishy robotic manta ray flaps its wings to spy in the ocean: The goal is to use the robot to explore underwater areas, says Tiefeng Li at Zhejiang University in Hangzhou, China. “The soft body will make it easy for the robot to sneak through reefs without damaging them,”
  5. Geek Culture Could Teach Americans About Chinese Technology, Says Technopreneur: According to Zhang, being called a geek is a compliment in China as someone who is "super cool" and knowledgeable about technology, and doesn't mean being weird or socially awkward
  6. Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent advance China’s AI development goals, says Microsoft research head. The mainland may be closing in on the US in developing AI, led by its three main internet firms, says Harry Shum Heung-yeung, executive vice-president for the artificial intelligence and research group
  7. China Emerges as Powerhouse for Biotech Drugs
  8. China launches 1st high-throughput communications satellite
  9. Legion Y520 Review - Lenovo's Best Laptop For $850 (Dave Lee review)
  10. Researchers in China and US made a new viral tracking tool by encapsulating HIV-1 in fluorescent quantum dots to observe how the virus enters macrophages at the single particle level in live cells. Technique may help in development of inhibitors that stop HIV from entering macrophages altogether.
  11. Chuwi Hi13: First Look at the Windows 10 2-in-1 with Surface Book Display
  12. SpaceX doesn’t scare Asia’s space players
  13. Google AI's AlphaGo to face Chinese teen in May - Science & Tech
  14. China’s Desert Hamsters on Medicine’s Front Line: The humble Chinese hamster has played a vital role in medical advances for more than a century, thanks to its biological makeup
In Economic news
  1. The bulls are back after China kicks off 2017 with strength: "There's been this cyclical recovery — China's in an easing mode … It shows up in the economic numbers, and it shows up in many company earnings reports," said Brendan Ahern, chief investment officer at Krane Funds Advisors
  2. America owes China $1tn. That's a problem for Beijing, and Trump knows it
  3. U.S. and European regulators have cleared ChemChina's proposed $43 billion acquisition of Swiss agribusiness giant Syngenta on condition it sells some businesses to satisfy anti-monopoly objections
  4. Ballpoint pens and the danger of China’s ‘one-dragon’ policy
  5. The Next Time Americans Want To Believe They Have Free Markets, Remind Them of United Airlines
  6. The surprising rise of China as IP powerhouse
  7. US firms cashing in on China's shift to consumer economy
  8. China is investing in Silicon Valley start-ups with military applications at such a rapid rate that the United States government needs tougher controls to stem the transfer of some of America’s most promising technologies, a Pentagon report says
  9. WhatsApp looks to copy China's Tencent-owned WeChat
  10. Why Trump won't be branding China a currency cheater
  11. China Focus: China's consumer inflation steady amid firming economy
  12. China Focus: Chinese companies come, hiring more locals in U.S.: Chinese investment in the U.S. outstripped U.S. investment in China for the first time in 2015, according to the Rhodium Group. Chinese investment has supported about 104,000 jobs in the United States
  13. China's forex reserves rise for second month in a row: concerns about capital outflows have receded lately, with the Chinese economy on a firmer footing, supported by a string of upbeat data including industrial profits, factory activity and fixed asset investment
  14. Trump won't label China a currency manipulator
  15. U.S. business leaders see benefits from strong trade ties with China
  16. China’s top maker of air conditioners breezes into Brazil’s economy and society
  17. Beijing thinking big on switch to a big data economy: Ministry pushes five-year plan to develop big data into a trillion-yuan industry. The target is for the big data industry, including related goods and services, to exceed 1 trillion yuan (US$144 billion) in revenue by 2020
  18. How Oppo, Vivo and xiaomi conquered India (OPPO、vivo和小米们如何夺取印度半壁江山?)
  19. Korea, China, Japan to hold new round of free trade talks
  20. U.S. Treasury says China does not manipulate its currency
  21. China’s Global Solar Business Shakes Foreign Competitors: China’s relentless pursuit to become self-dependent on sophisticated industries, such as solar panel systems, have left foreign competitors and even smaller-scale Chinese businesses in the dust
In Military news
  1. Thailand to buy more Chinese tanks, reportedly for $58M: According to Thai government spokesman Sansern Kaewkamnerd, the cabinet has approved the acquisition of 10 more VT4 main battle tanks designed and built by China’s Norinco
  2. China and US agree to top military talks to head off close armed encounters: New mechanism between Chinese and US armed forces could ease Beijing’s suspicions about US moves, analyst says
  3. China and Russia are Catching Up to the U.S. Military: America’s enemies are rapidly catching up and in some cases exceeding the United States in terms of military technology, according to senior U.S. Navy official Rear Adm. Mark Darrah
  4. US racing China to develop hypersonic attack drones by 2040
  5. China is testing its new PL-15 long-range air-to-air missile (LRAAM) designed to shoot down defenseless U.S. Air Force and U.S. Navy aerial tankers and airborne early warning and control aircraft (AEW&C) from as far away as 300 kilometers
  6. China Takes Wraps Off National Hypersonic Plan
  7. Chinese armed police hold anti-terror drill in Xinjiang
  8. SOUTHCOM Tidd: Russia, Iran and China Expanding Influence in Central, South America. Russia, China and Iran are increasing interest in Central and South America, especially Moscow’s renewed focus on Nicaragua, the head of U.S. Southern Command told the Senate
  9. China Coast Guard vessels patrol Diaoyu Islands on Fri, the 10th time this year
Other Notables
  1. Demolishing Dalian: China's 'Russian' city is erasing its heritage – in pictures
  2. DJI - M200 – Search and Rescue in Extreme Environments
  3. Driving under the rainbow! Watch China's first and only rainbow tunnel
  4. Ancient Chinese tomb-sweeping festival goes hi-tech: If you can't get to the grave yourself, staff at the Yuhuatai Gongdeyuan cemetery will clean tombs and place bouquets for paying clients, who watch the ritual via a livestream on the Wechat app instead
  5. Shanghai past and present
  6. High Profile Korean-Chinese Movie coproduction is a scifi set to release June 30th in China - Starring Yang Mi, Wallace Huo, Produced by Jackie Chan
  7. Westerners oughtn’t to criticize China for its ‘fake cities’: hypocrisy in the way Western media approaches "duplitecture". Core neighborhoods within Manhattan Island owe their architecture to Mannheim, Germany. Try and tell apart the central districts of Buenos Aires, Argentina from Madrid, Spain
  8. The Chinese engineer who mined an American life in Hibbing: In 1914 Wen Ping Pan became the first Chinese student at UofM. Met his wife Mae Humm, who was half-Irish like his mother. She retained an Irish temper and a talent for gab. As a result, she did most of the talking in their 63 yr marriage
  9. 3-part online low-key documentary series looking at different lives in China. First part features Wuhan and punk band SMZB.
  10. Is Hong Kong less free now than under British colonial rule?
  11. Goddess Ivanka continues to win the hearts of Chinese people as she began teaching Mandarin Chinese to Theodore, her youngest son. The boy began his Mandarin lessons just a week following his first birthday
  12. The Mercury Rivers of Emperor Qin Shi Huang
  13. The Chinese engineer who mined an American life on Minnesota's Iron Range
  14. Parcel sorting facility in China
  15. China and The Troubling Idealization of Ivanka
  16. Xiongan New Area to be Shenzhen of the north
  17. China's New World Order - the new Silk Road
  18. Why The NY Time’s Title of ‘Goddess Ivanka’ Is Misleading
  19. The Lionsgate movie “Power Rangers” got the approval of China’s censor for theatrical release on May 12 even if it has a gay character
  20. A Chinese bank employee is being hailed as a hero after risking his life to save a female customer from a robber who put a knife to her neck
  21. Unfettered online hate speech fuels Islamophobia in China.
  22. 汉服音乐微电影 汉家衣裳 超清
  23. Xiongan construction expected to drive up China steel market
  24. China's Xiongan New Area: Protecting environments a major task
  25. White Mainstream Media Goes On The Offensive Against Critics of United Airlines
  26. Success of China behind the growing allure of authoritarianism: the economic successes of China and some other countries may have helped create an underlying crisis of confidence in liberal ideas and values
  27. What does the Hong Kong Sevens have to do with Hongkongers?
  28. Thoughts on article about British Colonialism holding India Back? How did China overcome the Century of Humiliation while the British Raj's legacy still looms over India?
  29. Taiwanese music festival
  30. Foreign girls and their Chinese Mr. Right: Confronted with failure in College Entrance Examination Mei Aisi went to Ukraine for study
  31. What Would Have Happened If China Didn't Develop Nuclear Weapons?
  32. Child prodigy from Sale scores highest possible IQ score, beating Einstein and Hawking (From Messenger Newspapers)
  33. Discussion: Do you think the current escalation in the Korean Peninsula could possibly end up becoming a big boon to China?
  34. Chinese explorer's incredible arctic journey: This is the Arctic Circle, and Zhanjiang-born Wu Yu has just become the first person to ever drive here from China, some 8,000 kilometers away
  35. Reviving traditional Chinese archery: As one of the traditional Six Arts that have their roots in Confucian philosophy and formed the basis of education in ancient Chinese culture, archery has a long history in China
  36. The Results Are In: 2016 Is a Record-Breaking Year for Tall Buildings
  37. Pictures: Apricot flowers in blossom at Jinshanling Great Wall
  38. Something I noticed about chinese-canadians in canada
  39. TIL that the first king of the first muslim kingdom in indonesia was chinese indonesian
  40. Getting paid to do nothing: why the idea of China’s dibao is catching on
  41. Five thousand years of Chinese civilisation through 108 million relics - Four year survey finds that is just what is in the hands of the state. The number grows even more when considering overseas museums and private collectors
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